## Mathematisches Institut

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Scientific and public interest in epidemiology and mathematical modelling of disease spread has increased significantly due to the current COVID-19 pandemic. Political action is influenced by forecasts and evaluations of such models and the whole society is affected by the corresponding countermeasures for containment. But how are these models structured?
Which methods can be used to apply them to the respective regions, based on real data sets? These questions are certainly not new. Mathematical modelling in epidemiology using differential equations has been researched for quite some time now and can be carried out mainly by means of numerical computer simulations. These models are constantly being refinded and adapted to corresponding diseases. However, it should be noted that the more complex a model is, the more unknown parameters are included. A meaningful data adaptation thus becomes very diffcult. The goal of this thesis is to design applicable models using the examples of COVID-19 and dengue, to adapt them adequately to real data sets and thus to perform numerical simulations. For this purpose, first the mathematical foundations are presented and a theoretical outline of ordinary differential equations and optimization is provided. The parameter estimations shall be performed by means of adjoint functions. This procedure represents a combination of static and dynamical optimization. The objective function corresponds to a least squares method with L2 norm which depends on the searched parameters. This objective function is coupled to constraints in the form of ordinary differential equations and numerically minimized, using Pontryagin's maximum (minimum) principle and optimal control theory. In the case of dengue, due to the transmission path via mosquitoes, a model reduction of an SIRUV model to an SIR model with time-dependent transmission rate is performed by means of time-scale separation. The SIRUV model includes uninfected (U) and infected (V ) mosquito compartments in addition to the susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R) human compartments, known from the SIR model. The unknwon parameters of the reduced SIR model are estimated using data sets from Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Jakarta (Indonesia). Based on this parameter estimation the predictive power of the model is checked and evaluated. In the case of Jakarta, the model is additionally provided with a mobility component between the individual city districts, based on commuter data. The transmission rates of the SIR models are also dependent on meteorological data as correlations between these and dengue outbreaks have been demonstrated in previous data analyses. For the modelling of COVID-19 we use several SEIRD models which in comparison to the SIR model also take into account the latency period and the number of deaths via exposed (E) and deaths (D) compartments. Based on these models a parameter estimation with adjoint functions is performed for the location Germany. This is possible because since the beginning of the pandemic, the cumulative number of infected persons and deaths
are published daily by Johns Hopkins University and the Robert-Koch-Institute. Here, a SEIRD model with a time delay regarding the deaths proves to be particularly suitable. In the next step, this model is used to compare the parameter estimation via adjoint functions with a Metropolis algorithm. Analytical effort, accuracy and calculation speed are taken into account. In all data fittings, one parameter each is determined to assess the estimated number of unreported cases.

We consider variational discretization of three different optimal control problems.
The first being a parabolic optimal control problem governed by space-time measure controls. This problem has a nice sparsity structure, which motivates our aim to achieve maximal sparsity on the discrete level. Due to the measures on the right hand side of the partial differential equation, we consider a very weak solution theory for the state equation and need an embedding into the continuous functions for the pairings to make sense. Furthermore, we employ Fenchel duality to formulate the predual problem and give results on solution theory of both the predual and the primal problem. Later on, the duality is also helpful for the derivation of algorithms, since the predual problem can be differentiated twice so that we can apply a semismooth Newton method. We then retrieve the optimal control by duality relations.
For the state discretization we use a Petrov-Galerkin method employing piecewise constant states and piecewise linear and continuous test functions in time. For the space discretization we choose piecewise linear and continuous functions. As a result the controls are composed of Dirac measures in space-time, centered at points on the discrete space-time grid. We prove that the optimal discrete states and controls converge strongly in L^q and weakly-* in Μ, respectively, to their smooth counterparts, where q ϵ (1,min{2,1+2/d}] is the spatial dimension. The variational discrete version of the state equation with the above choice of spaces yields a Crank-Nicolson time stepping scheme with half a Rannacher smoothing step.
Furthermore, we compare our approach to a full discretization of the corresponding control problem, precisely a discontinuous Galerkin method for the state discretization, where the discrete controls are piecewise constant in time and Dirac measures in space. Numerical experiments highlight the sparsity features of our discrete approach and verify the convergence results.
The second problem we analyze is a parabolic optimal control problem governed by bounded initial measure controls. Here, the cost functional consists of a tracking term corresponding to the observation of the state at final time. Instead of a regularization term for the control in the cost functional, we consider a bound on the measure norm of the initial control. As in the first problem we observe a sparsity structure, but here the control resides only in space at initial time, so we focus on the space discretization to achieve maximal sparsity of the control. Again, due to the initial measure in the partial differential equation, we rely on a very weak solution theory of the state equation.
We employ a dG(0) approximation of the state equation, i.e. we choose piecewise linear and continuous functions in space, which are piecewise constant in time for our ansatz and test space. Then, the variational discretization of the problem together with the optimality conditions induce maximal discrete sparsity of the initial control, i.e. Dirac measures in space. We present numerical experiments to illustrate our approach and investigate the sparsity structure
As third problem we choose an elliptic optimal control governed by functions of bounded variation (BV) in one space dimension. The cost functional consists of a tracking term for the state and a BV-seminorm in terms of the derivative of the control. We derive a sparsity structure for the derivative of the BV control. Additionally, we utilize the mixed formulation for the state equation.
A variational discretization approach with piecewise constant discretization of the state and piecewise linear and continuous discretization of the adjoint state yields that the derivative of the control is a sum of Dirac measures. Consequently the control is a piecewise constant function. Under a structural assumption we even get that the number of jumps of the control is finite. We prove error estimates for the variational discretization approach in combination with the mixed formulation of the state equation and confirm our findings in numerical experiments that display the convergence rate.
In summary we confirm the use of variational discretization for optimal control problems with measures that inherit a sparsity. We are able to preserve the sparsity on the discrete level without discretizing the control variable.