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From September 4 to 11, 1992, a fiirst meeting between Ukrainian and German scientists interested in mathematical and computer modeling of social processes was held at Vorzel' near Kiev. The meeting had been planned for nearly three years by Igor V. Chernenko and Mikhail V. Kuz'min, then members of the research group on mathematical modeling in sociology at the Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Science of the Ukrainian Republic, and had to be postponed twice due to the political development in the former Soviet Union, but thanks to the organizers' perseverance (and in spite of a strike of the airport personell at Kiev Borispol Airport on the eve of the conference) the conference could at last be realized.rnThe main purpose of the conference was to discuss a synergetic interpretation of large-scale destructive social processes as catastrophic phenomena in self-organized systems.
The estimation of the potential risk of pesticide entries into streams - and therefore the potential risk for the ecosystems - is an important requirement for the planning of risk mitigation strategies. Especially on the landscape level the required event triggered sampling methods are conjuncted with considerable efforts with regard to input data, time and personnel. To circumvent these problems simulation models form a reasonable alternative. The aims of this work were (A) the development of a simulation tool for the estimation of pesticide entries into surface waters on the landscape level, and (B) the application of the simulator for an exposure- and risk-assessment as well as the assessment of negative effects of pesticides on aquatic communities. Section 1 - Exposure-, Risk- and Effects In sections 1.1 and 1.2 the simulation model was applied to a multitude of small and medium sized streams in an agricultural impacted study area around the city of Braunschweig, Germany. Section 1.3 gives an overview of the simulators field of application and the general system structure. Section 1.1 - Scenario based simulation of runoff-related pesticide entries into small streams on a landscape level (English publication, p. 27): In this paper we present a simulation tool for the simulation of pesticide entry from arable land into adjacent streams. We used the ratio of exposure to toxicity (REXTOX) model proposed by the OECD which was extended to calculate pesticide concentrations in adjacent streams. We simulated the pesticide entry on the landscape level at 737 sites in small streams situated in the central lowland of Germany. The most significant model parameters were the width of the no-application-zone and the degree of plant-interception. The simulation was carried out using eight different environmental scenarios, covering variation of the width of the no-application-zone, climate and seasonal scenarios. The highest in-stream concentrations were predicted at a scenario using no (0 m) buffer zone in conjunction with increased precipitation. According to the predicted concentrations, the risk for the aquatic communities was estimated based on standard toxicity tests and the application of a safety factor. Section 1.2 - Linking land use variables and invertebrate taxon richness in small and medium-sized agricultural streams on a landscape level (English publication, p. 50): In this study the average numbers of invertebrate species across an arable landscape in central Germany (surveys from 15 years in 90 streams at 202 sites) were assessed for their correlation with environmental factors such as stream width, land use (arable land, forest, pasture, settlement), soil type and agricultural derived stressors. The stress originating from arable land was estimated by the factor "risk of runoff", which was derived from a runoff-model (rainfall induced surface runoff). Multivariate analysis explained 39.9% of the variance in species number, revealing stream width as the most important factor (25.3%) followed by risk of runoff (9.7%). Section 1.3 - Informationssystem zur ökotoxikologischen Bewertung der Gewässergüte in Bezug auf Pflanzenschutzmitteleinträge aus der Landwirtschaft - Systemaufbau und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten (German publication, p. 61): Section 1.3 contains a short overview of the simulation tool, the field of application and some examples of use, covering the effects of the width of the buffer zone as well as the creation of risk maps on the landscape level. Section 2 - The simulation tool An important aspect for the employment of a simulation model in the context of risk assessment is the applicability in practice: the accessibility of the needed input data, the conversion of the mathematical model into a software application that can be run on any current personnel computer and also an appropriate end-user documentation of the system. Section 1.4 - Informationssystem zur ökotoxikologischen Bewertung der Gewässergüte in Bezug auf Pflanzenschutzmitteleinträge aus der Landwirtschaft - Simulationsmodell und Systemaufbau (German report, p. 67): In this section a general overview of the simulation model as well as the schematic system structure given. Section 1.5 - Benutzerhandbuch (German report, p. 71): The user manual contains details concerning the installation of the system, generation of the required input data and the general use of the system. Moreover it presents some application examples (what-if analyses). Section 1.6 - Technical documentation (German report, p. 104): The technical documentation describes internal structures and processes of the simulation system. Section 1.6 provides information regarding the required structure of input/output tables.
Systems to simulate crowd-behavior are used to simulate the evacuation of a crowd in case of an emergency. These systems are limited to the moving-patterns of a crowd and are generally not considering psychological and/or physical conditions. Changing behaviors within the crowd (e.g. by a person falling down) are not considered.
For that reason, this thesis will examine the psychological behavior and the physical impact of a crowd- member on the crowd. In order to do so, this study develops a real-time simulation for a crowd of people, adapted from a system for video games. This system contains a behavior-AI for agents. In order to show physical interaction between the agents and their environment as well as their movements, the physical representation of each agent is realized by using rigid bodies from a physics-engine. The movements of the agents have an additional navigation mesh and an algorithm for collision avoidance.
By developing a behavior-AI a physical and psychological state is reached. This state contains a psychological stress-level as well as a physical condition. The developed simulation is able to show physical impacts such as crowding and crushing of agents, interaction of agents with their environment as well as factors of stress.
By evaluating several tests of the simulation, this thesis examines whether the combination of physical and psychological impacts is implementable successfully. If so, this thesis will be able to give indications of an agent- behavior in dangerous and/or stressful situations as well as a valuation of the complex physical representation.