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Gefährdete Weltmacht USA
(2017)
Aims and findings of the dissertation
The completed research uses holistic, politological and historical approaches to present how, during the studied period of the administrations of Clinton to Obama, the liberal, rule-based world order system is gradually supplemented and replaced by a system of realist imposition of vital interests that have short-term effects, preferring military means combined with continuous military optimisation. This also explains a continuity between the leading-power policy of administrations in this study (1993-2017) and the subsequent period of the “transactional leadership of Trump”(1), with its recognizable, far-reaching effects of aiming to reduce idealistic Grand Strategy elements and measures of a benevolent order by passing on costs to and reducing the benefits of European NATO allies. The results of this dissertation, such as the increasingly evident dissolution of a multilateral fundamental order, therefore indicate that Trump’s foreign and security policy to date should be regarded as a clearly noticeable crisis symptom, rather than the cause of a decline in the world order established after 1945. This decline is synonymous with the erosion of the transatlantically initiated bipolar “American system”. Its implementation was the result of the “lesson of two world wars”, based on modern concepts of order introduced by the Enlightenment and the founding criteria of the United States: thus its dissolution is also an indicator of the failure of contemporary criteria of order that thrive in the “American way of life”.
The cause of the described development is shown to be a constantly exacerbating overall threat, from Clinton to Obama, which is connected to the consistent erosion of US supremacy. Among other aspects, this is based on climate change effects postulated in 1979, which multiply the threat while coinciding with American peak production of fossil fuels and increased demand on resources in the context of dwindling raw material resources. Furthermore, during the period of this study, the “US conservative revolution”, which began in the 1980s, increasingly affected foreign and security policy, combining with a consolidation in the influence of corporations and lobby groups in fields such as policy implementation and new underlying conditions. They include the onset of digitisation, entailing a high consumption of resources, and a growing world population faced with specific demographic indicators. Additionally, the maintenance of the armaments sector, originally a result of bipolar development, as the economic basis of military supremacy and the slow decline of the Dollar hegemony since around 1973, should also be taken into account. Complex interaction between Grand Strategy implementation according to the premise of expanding US-American dominance under neoconservative and Christian Right-wing influences, as well as asymmetrical and reactivated conventional security threats and threat multipliers clearly indicate the linear development of the overall threat in the period between 1993 and 2017: in the context of Grand Strategy statements, above all the understanding of defence against this threat, of the latter’s multiplying factors and the market economy explains the following with respect to the US far-right in a complex interaction with the growth of transnational corporations, lobby groups, individuals(2), informal networks and state actors with respect to objects of threat and threat multipliers(3) in connection with the post-bipolar, global anchoring of US economic and consumer patterns: US adaptation of its reaction to this threat – while consolidating imperial presidency(4) and weakening the system of checks and balances – including its implications of a bipolar liberal order. In this way, the necessary continued leadership within NATO through the US-proposed NATO reform can be seen as an appropriate implementation of transformed threat-reaction measures and the legitimisation of systemic adaptation. It equally becomes clear that the established threat reaction measures only provide a short-term defence: instead, they enhance the asymmetric and conventional threat, as well as threat multipliers – by introducing arms races and breaking down arms control – thereby heightening the overall threat. The consequence is the consistently growing likelihood of a conflict of hitherto unimaginable proportions. At the same time, the urgent need to mobilise transatlantic cooperation with respect to supporting global cooperation between state and non-government actors is illustrated with respect to the roots of the threat and its deteriorating underlying conditions: each increase in the overall threat, the adapted US security policy and its continuation in NATO is connected to an erosion of rule-based underlying criteria during the studied period. This continuously and consistently undermines the basis of the above-stated, ever-increasingly important cooperation, to prevent or at least limit the successive erosion of the bipolar “American system” under future dystopias. The research results completely overturn the state of research to date, since for instance it is possible to show that, by means of NATO transformation findings, no transatlantic sharing of burdens on an equal footing and no NATO reform in accordance with its founding principles can be achieved. The same also applies to European opposition to the actual anchoring of NATO transformation positions(5), which is based on the erosion of the bipolar liberal order system and the maintenance of US advantages as well as the consolidation of particular interests they facilitate. Furthermore, it is apparent that a line of continuity in the threat-reaction measures from Clinton to Obama exists with varying external effects, along with an underlying pattern of “Battleship America” – as opposed to a multilaterally orientated foreign and security policy under Clinton, which merged into a unilateral, radical swing under G. W. Bush 43 following 9/11, but was reverted by the Obama administration. A comprehensive wealth of literature was used of the doctoral thesis, as reflected by the extensive bibliography: they firstly include diverse American and European publications, monographs and relevant secondary literature, including biographies, publications of various kinds of important political planning and implementation, as well as collected volumes and research articles from specialist journals on all fields of research and politological methodology and theory. The same applies to publications by leading European and American institutions, research centres and think tanks. Furthermore, this author used publications and documents by governments, foreign ministries, defence ministries, other government bodies and Nato.
Dissertation structure
This dissertation is divided into two volumes and one Appendix: Volume 1 discusses Focus 1, namely a process-tracing in the context of offensive neorealist positioning. Volume 2 presents Focus 2, which is based on the preceding focus in making a structured, focussed comparison in the context of defensive neorealist positioning. The Appendix volume contains further discussion of Chapter 1, Volume 1 with respect to the state of research, literature and sources, theoretical positioning and the choice of the region of study and selected European NATO partners. Furthermore, a historical chapter provides underlying information for process-tracing in Chapter 2, Volume 1, an index of images and abbreviations, and a bibliography.
The entire dissertation uses qualitative methods to focus on these two mutually supporting, building on each other, themes to investigate the following from a US-perspective: firstly the overriding US security-policy reaction to a new overall threat and secondly, its continuation combined with the opportunity of for enabling and legitimising it within and through NATO during the studied period from Clinton to Obama.
Based on the first part of this hypothesis, Focus 1 (Volume 1) establishes a connection between, on the one hand, maintaining the bipolar Grand Strategy target of consolidating the USA as a leading, regulating power, bipolar foreign-policy Grand Strategy indicators and a new overall threat that is developing in a complex way, and, on the other, the necessity of its continued leadership within NATO and the required NATO transformation according to US-proposed NATO transformation positions.
Focus 2 (Volume 2) is based on the second part of the hypothesis, investigating the transatlantic negotiation process to establish these US-proposed NATO transformation positions: in this context, Volume 2 investigates whether the attempt to actually secure and consolidate such US supremacy was unsuccessful in the face of resistance from selected European NATO partners, namely France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
The overall result shows that due to a complex, developing, linear increase in the overall threat, the chance for the USA to consolidate its status as a leading power is steadily diminishing. This must be compensated by adapting US security policy. The resulting American security-policy realignment based on the initiated “revolution in military affairs” in turn modifies the indicators of bipolar collective security guarantees. Everything is enabled and legitimised by means of actually securing US NATO-transformation positions. The actual implementation of such NATO transformation – representing the consistent adaptation of US security policy – enables a mission-orientated, rapid response, flexible, global security projection. It also creates conditions for “alliances of choice” within NATO. Furthermore, the modification of a “bipolar NATO” exacerbates the erosion of key achievements of civilisation as a result of adapted US security policy, as well as undermining the tasks of bipolar collective security guarantees through diminished benefits to European NATO partners.
The actual anchoring of NATO transformation positions is achieved by reactivating the conventional threat in the context of the Ukraine crisis of 2014 and the extension of NATO partnership rings on a global level, without providing them with NATO membership status, thus avoiding globalisation in a mutual defence case. The German and French resistance is particularly intensive through the involvement of European founder states, while the formation of a European leadership triumvirate consisting of France, Germany and the United Kingdom does not take place.
Moreover, a relevant investigation of causes particularly shows that despite constant mutually supporting US security reaction measures with varying international effects and actual continued leadership within NATO, the overall threat is not receding: this leads to a constant increase in the overall threat, a loss of influence of state actors, the diffusion and concentration of power and the increased probability of reactive conventional, nuclear, cyber and ecological destruction scenarios. On this basis, the consequence is an increasingly comprehensive and rapidly responding precision defence combined with growing securitization to compensate for the ongoing containment of US supremacy. This developing process steadily diminishes the reach and power of a liberal, rule-based, bipolar “American system” and the establishment of “idealistic, liberal” elements of US-Grand Strategy. This entails a further reduction in benefits for European NATO allies and increasing US cost-cutting demands – based on the successive NATO transformation positions that build on each other and Obama’s “smart power”(6) during the period studied in this dissertation. Thus the chance is receding of developing the post-bipolar, globally adopted American way of life with individual national character, which is regarded as “non-negotiable”: for instance its articulation is expressed through increasing right-wing populism, the election of outsider-candidates, the dissolution of traditional party systems, isolationist tendencies combined with burgeoning ethnic, regional movements, the rejection of supranationalism, and religious fundamentalism. At the same time, the ongoing erosion of global public goods is apparent.
This all paves the way to limiting the benevolent American regulating power and state actors’ leverage – and therefore to a return to classic power politics in the context of a resulting diffusion and concentration of power. In view of the urgency of a long-term containment of asymmetrical or conventional threats to security, or aspects that exacerbate such threats or clusters thereof, as well as underlying global conditions, this undermines the ability to achieve the following: to achieve transatlantic cooperation by broadening the range of levels and actors in the spirit of proactive and expanded, networked security to achieve according global cooperation with respect to containing the root causes of threats.
Overall, this research work reveals how and why the anticipated “peace dividend” and the notion of an “age of hope”, as postulated by President Clinton, were hardly perceptible during the period of study between 1993 and 2017.
Notes
(1) Cf. Braml, Josef (2018), Trumps transaktionaler Transatlantizismus, in: Jäger, Thomas (Hrsg.), Zeitschrift für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, Oktober 2018, Volume 11, Ausgabe 4, S. 439-448, Wiesbaden.
(2) Cf. National Intelligence Council (Ed.) (2012), Global Trends 2013: Alternative Worlds (NIC 2012-001), https://publicintelligence.net/global-trends-2030/, last accessed: 12.04.19. See also the “international financial leadership, self-selected at Davos” cit. McCoy, Alfred W. (2017), In the Shadows of the American Century. The Rise and Decline of US Global Power, Chicago.
(3) In 1990, the threat-enhancing nature of climate change was already postulated with respect to asymmetric objects of threat as well as conventional and complex clusters: “Over the next half century, the global average temperature may increase by approximately 4 degrees C. (…) All nations will be affected. (…) How much time will there be to confirm the amount of change and then to act? (…) However, many believe that we will have waited too long to avoid major dislocation, hardship and conflict – on a scale not as yet seen by man“. Cf. Kelley, Terry P. (1990), Global Climate Change. Implications For The United States Navy (The United States Naval War College, Newport, RI), http://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/climatechange/globalclimatechange-navy.pdf, last accessed: 30.03.19. Cf. Mazo, Jeffrey (2010), Climate Conflict. How global warming threatens security and what to do about it, London, Abingdon.
This supports the thesis of a developing, constant overall threat during the period between 1993 and 2017.
(4) Cf. Schlesinger, Arthur M., Jr. (1973), The Imperial Presidency, Boston.
(5) In this dissertation, the proposed US positions on NATO adaptation, the NATO Response Force and the Global Partnership Initiative are described as “NATO transformation positions”: Their actual establishment was connected to a NATO transformation with the consistent continuation of adapted US security policy.
(6) Cf. Nossel, Suzanne (2004), Smart Power. Reclaiming Liberal Internationalism, http://www.democracyarsenal.org/SmartPowerFA.pdf, last accessed: 26.08.17, Nye, Joseph S. Jr. (2011), The Future of Power, New York, Nye, Joseph S. Jr. (2011), Macht im 21sten Jahrhundert. Politische Strategien für ein neues Zeitalter, München, Rodham Clinton, Hillary (2010), Leading Through Civilan Power. Redefining American Diplomacy and Development, in: Foreign Affairs, November/December 2010, Vol. 89, No.6, S. 13-24.
Augmented reality is being present for many years. Through progress in technology smaller augmented reality glasses became possible. These new technologies allow many new ways of interaction and usage of augmented reality.
This thesis is about the Microsoft HoloLens and its possiblities for consumers and industry. In the context of this thesis a new interactive and augmented application to measure the possiblities and limitations of the Microsoft HoloLens has been developed. The scene is an assembly szenario with a step by step instruction of building with Lego bricks. The evaluation showed that the HoloLens can already be used to assist in assembling scenarios and offers some advantages over other methods, although the glasses still have some flaws.
Grundwasser ist eine lebenswichtige Ressource und gleichzeitig ein thermisch stabiler Lebensraum mit einer außergewöhnlichen Fauna. Aufgrund der Klimageschichte der letzten ca. 1,8 Millionen Jahre in Mitteleuropa war die Ausgangshypothese, dass die meisten Grundwasserarten an Temperaturen unterhalb von 14 °C angepasst sind und sich Temperaturerhöhungen daher negativ auf die Grundwasserfauna auswirken.
Um die Folgen einer Klimaerwärmung in situ beurteilen zu können, wurden anthropogen erwärmte Grundwässer als Modelle herangezogen. In ersten Teil dieser Arbeit wurden die Crustaceagemeinschaften natürlich temperierter und anthropogen erwärmter Standorte untersucht. Dazu wurden insgesamt 70 Grundwassermessstellen im Oberrheingraben über ein Jahr (2011 bis 2012) sechsmal beprobt. Ergänzend zu diesem synökologischen Ansatz wurde in einem zweiten Teil die Temperaturpräferenz ausgewählter Arten überprüft. Für diese autökologische Betrachtung wurde ein deutschlandweiter Datensatz herangezogen.
Die ausgewählten Untersuchungsgebiete haben sich als geeignete Modelle für die prognostizierten Temperaturerhöhungen herausgestellt. Die Temperatur erwies sich als einer der wichtigsten Parameter für die Crustaceagemeinschaften. Erwärmungen beeinflussen die Zusammensetzung der Gemeinschaften und die Diversität. Dabei zeigte sich, dass es artspezifisch unterschiedliche Temperaturpräferenzen gibt. Einige vermutlich weniger streng stygobionte Arten scheinen höhere Temperaturen zu tolerieren. Der Großteil der stygobionten Grundwasserarten bevorzugt allerdings Temperaturen unterhalb von 14 °C, wobei wenige Arten als „extrem kalt¬steno-therm“ einzustufen sind. Diese Arten wurden an Standorten nachgewiesen, die aufgrund der hydrologischen Verhältnisse relativ kühl sind und der Fauna auch zukünftig als kalte Refugien Schutz bieten könnten. Einer dieser Standorte ist aufgrund seiner Artenvielalt als „Hot Spot“ einzustufen. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass vor allem kaltstenotherme Arten durch eine Klimaerwärmung und anthropogene Wärmeeinträge gefährdet sind.
Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass Grundwasserlebensräume vor Temperaturerhöhungen zu bewahren sind. Lokale anthropogene Wärmeeinträge sollten keine dauerhafte und großflächige Grundwassererwärmung über 14 °C zur Folge haben. Thermische Ein-träge sollten überwacht und bewertet werden. Es wird empfohlen, die bestehenden rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen den ökologischen Erfordernissen anzupassen.
This thesis tests several methods and measures in pathtracing for selecting either the Line Space or the Bounding Volume Hierarchy data structure to make use of the advantages of both. The structures are defined locally around each object and each Line Space shaft contains one candidate ID each. All implementation is done as a C++ and OpenGL framework with compute shaders handling the pathtracing and Line Space generation. The measures include the probability distribution, the effect dependency, as well as a distance threshold and are tested against several different scenes. In most situations, the results show a noticeable increase in performance, partly only with minor visual differences, with the probability measure producing the highest quality images for a given performance. The fundamental problems of the Line Space concering the high memory consumption and a long generation time compared to the BVH still persist, despite the object local structure, a minimal amount of data per shaft and the compute shader implementation.
Die Forschung im Bereich der modellbasierten Objekterkennung und Objektlokalisierung hat eine vielversprechende Zukunft, insbesondere die Gebäudeerkennung bietet vielfaltige Anwendungsmöglichkeiten. Die Bestimmung der Position und der Orientierung des Beobachters relativ zu einem Gebäude ist ein zentraler Bestandteil der Gebäudeerkennung.
Kern dieser Arbeit ist es, ein System zur modellbasierten Poseschätzung zu entwickeln, das unabhängig von der Anwendungsdomäne agiert. Als Anwendungsdomäne wird die modellbasierte Poseschätzung bei Gebäudeaufnahmen gewählt. Vorbereitend für die Poseschätzung bei Gebäudeaufnahmen wird die modellbasierte Erkennung von Dominosteinen und Pokerkarten realisiert. Eine anwendungsunabhängige Kontrollstrategie interpretiert anwendungsspezifische Modelle, um diese im Bild sowohl zu lokalisieren als auch die Pose mit Hilfe dieser Modelle zu bestimmen. Es wird explizit repräsentiertes Modellwissen verwendet, sodass Modellbestandteilen Bildmerkmale zugeordnet werden können. Diese Korrespondenzen ermöglichen die Kamerapose aus einer monokularen Aufnahme zurückzugewinnen. Das Verfahren ist unabhängig vom Anwendungsfall und kann auch mit Modellen anderer rigider Objekte umgehen, falls diese der definierten Modellrepräsentation entsprechen. Die Bestimmung der Pose eines Modells aus einem einzigen Bild, das Störungen und Verdeckungen aufweisen kann, erfordert einen systematischen Vergleich des Modells mit Bilddaten. Quantitative und qualitative Evaluationen belegen die Genauigkeit der bestimmten Gebäudeposen.
In dieser Arbeit wird zudem ein halbautomatisches Verfahren zur Generierung eines Gebäudemodells vorgestellt. Das verwendete Gebäudemodell, das sowohl semantisches als auch geometrisches Wissen beinhaltet, den Aufgaben der Objekterkennung und Poseschätzung genügt und sich dennoch an den bestehenden Normen orientiert, ist Voraussetzung für das Poseschätzverfahren. Leitgedanke der Repräsentationsform des Modells ist, dass sie für Menschen interpretierbar bleibt. Es wurde ein halbautomatischer Ansatz gewählt, da die automatische Umsetzung dieses Verfahrens schwer die nötige Präzision erzielen kann. Das entwickelte Verfahren erreicht zum einen die nötige Präzision zur Poseschätzung und reduziert zum anderen die Nutzerinteraktionen auf ein Minimum. Eine qualitative Evaluation belegt die erzielte Präzision bei der Generierung des Gebäudemodells.
Since software influences nearly every aspect of everyday life, the security of software systems is more important than ever before. The evaluation of the security of a software system still poses a significant challenge in practice, mostly due to the lack of metrics, which can map the security properties of source code onto numeric values. It is a common assumption, that the occurrence of security vulnerabilities and the quality of the software design stand in direct correlation, but there is currently no clear evidence to support this. A proof of an existing correlation could help to optimize the measurements of program security, making it possible to apply quality measurements to evaluate it. For this purpose, this work evaluates fifty open-source android applications, using three security and seven quality metrics. It also considers the correlations between the metrics. The quality metrics range from simple code metrics to high-level metrics such as object-oriented anti-patterns, which together provide a comprehensive picture of the quality. Two visibility metrics, along with a metric that computes the minimal permission request for mobile applications, were selected to illustrate the security. Using the evaluation projects, it was found that there is a clear correlation between most quality metrics. By contrast, no significant correlations were found using the security metrics. This work discusses the correlations and their causes as well as further recommendations based on the findings.
Redaktionelle Korrektur betreffend die Vierzehnte Ordnung zur Änderung der Prüfungsordnung für die Prüfung im Zwei-Fach-Bachelorstudiengang an der Universität Koblenz-Landau
Satzung der örtlichen Studierendenschaft an der Universität Koblenz-Landau, Campus Koblenz
Sechste Ordnung zur Änderung der Ordnung für die Prüfung im Bachelorstudiengang Umweltwissenschaften und in den Masterstudiengängen Umweltwissenschaften / Environmental Sciences und Ecotoxicology an der Universität Koblenz-Landau, Campus Landau
Zwanzigste Ordnung zur Änderung der Prüfungsordnung
für die Prüfung im lehramtsbezogenen Bachelorstudiengang
an der Universität Koblenz-Landau
Zweite Ordnung zur Änderung der Ordnung für die Prüfung im Bachelorstudiengang und im Masterstudiengang BioGeoWissenschaften der Universität Koblenz-Landau
Fünfzehnte Ordnung zur Änderung der Prüfungsordnung für die Prüfung im Zwei-Fach-Bachelorstudiengang an der Universität Koblenz-Landau
Sechste Ordnung zur Änderung der Prüfungsordnung für den Bachelorstudiengang und den Masterstudiengang „Sozial- und Kommunikationswissenschaften“ des Fachbereichs 6: Kultur- und Sozialwissenschaften an der Universität Koblenz-Landau
This thesis deals with the exploration of different interaction possibilities
for three-dimensional, virtual objects in a real environment. The focus lies
especially on interaction possibilities from new AR-technologies.
A playful prototype of an application for Microsofts HoloLens will be
designed and implemented. The prototype consists of three parts. The first
part is the scan-process of the real environment of the user. In the second
part the user can augment the real environment with three-dimensional,
virtual objects. In the third part the user is supposed to navigate a virtual
avatar through the real environment.
The interaction possibilities of the HoloLens like Gaze, Gesture and VoiceInput
will be evaluated in the following categories menu navigation, positioning
of three-dimensional objects in a real environment and controlling an
avatar.
This thesis presents two methods for the computation of global illumination. The first is an extension of Reflective Shadow Maps with an additional shadow test in order to handle occlusion. The second method is a novel, bidirectional Light-Injection approach. Rays originating from the light source are traced through the scene and stored inside the shafts of the Linespace datastructure. These shafts are a discretization of the possible spatial directions. The Linespaces are embedded in a Uniform Grid. When retrieving this pre-calculated lightning information no traversal of datastructures and no additional indirection is necessary in the best-case scenario. This reduces computation time and variance compared to Pathtracing. Areas that are mostly lit indirectly and glas profit the most from this. However, the result is only approximative in nature and produces visible artifacts.
This thesis explores different approaches for the acceleration of raytracing calculations on the graphics processing unit (GPU). For that a voxel grid is used and extended by the linespace data structure. The linespace consists of direction based shafts and stores the objects located in those shafts in a candidate list. Different methods for the sorting and traversal of the linespace are presented and evaluated. The shown methods cannot provide a speed up of the frame rate without resulting in a loss of image quality.