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The estimation of the potential risk of pesticide entries into streams - and therefore the potential risk for the ecosystems - is an important requirement for the planning of risk mitigation strategies. Especially on the landscape level the required event triggered sampling methods are conjuncted with considerable efforts with regard to input data, time and personnel. To circumvent these problems simulation models form a reasonable alternative. The aims of this work were (A) the development of a simulation tool for the estimation of pesticide entries into surface waters on the landscape level, and (B) the application of the simulator for an exposure- and risk-assessment as well as the assessment of negative effects of pesticides on aquatic communities. Section 1 - Exposure-, Risk- and Effects In sections 1.1 and 1.2 the simulation model was applied to a multitude of small and medium sized streams in an agricultural impacted study area around the city of Braunschweig, Germany. Section 1.3 gives an overview of the simulators field of application and the general system structure. Section 1.1 - Scenario based simulation of runoff-related pesticide entries into small streams on a landscape level (English publication, p. 27): In this paper we present a simulation tool for the simulation of pesticide entry from arable land into adjacent streams. We used the ratio of exposure to toxicity (REXTOX) model proposed by the OECD which was extended to calculate pesticide concentrations in adjacent streams. We simulated the pesticide entry on the landscape level at 737 sites in small streams situated in the central lowland of Germany. The most significant model parameters were the width of the no-application-zone and the degree of plant-interception. The simulation was carried out using eight different environmental scenarios, covering variation of the width of the no-application-zone, climate and seasonal scenarios. The highest in-stream concentrations were predicted at a scenario using no (0 m) buffer zone in conjunction with increased precipitation. According to the predicted concentrations, the risk for the aquatic communities was estimated based on standard toxicity tests and the application of a safety factor. Section 1.2 - Linking land use variables and invertebrate taxon richness in small and medium-sized agricultural streams on a landscape level (English publication, p. 50): In this study the average numbers of invertebrate species across an arable landscape in central Germany (surveys from 15 years in 90 streams at 202 sites) were assessed for their correlation with environmental factors such as stream width, land use (arable land, forest, pasture, settlement), soil type and agricultural derived stressors. The stress originating from arable land was estimated by the factor "risk of runoff", which was derived from a runoff-model (rainfall induced surface runoff). Multivariate analysis explained 39.9% of the variance in species number, revealing stream width as the most important factor (25.3%) followed by risk of runoff (9.7%). Section 1.3 - Informationssystem zur ökotoxikologischen Bewertung der Gewässergüte in Bezug auf Pflanzenschutzmitteleinträge aus der Landwirtschaft - Systemaufbau und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten (German publication, p. 61): Section 1.3 contains a short overview of the simulation tool, the field of application and some examples of use, covering the effects of the width of the buffer zone as well as the creation of risk maps on the landscape level. Section 2 - The simulation tool An important aspect for the employment of a simulation model in the context of risk assessment is the applicability in practice: the accessibility of the needed input data, the conversion of the mathematical model into a software application that can be run on any current personnel computer and also an appropriate end-user documentation of the system. Section 1.4 - Informationssystem zur ökotoxikologischen Bewertung der Gewässergüte in Bezug auf Pflanzenschutzmitteleinträge aus der Landwirtschaft - Simulationsmodell und Systemaufbau (German report, p. 67): In this section a general overview of the simulation model as well as the schematic system structure given. Section 1.5 - Benutzerhandbuch (German report, p. 71): The user manual contains details concerning the installation of the system, generation of the required input data and the general use of the system. Moreover it presents some application examples (what-if analyses). Section 1.6 - Technical documentation (German report, p. 104): The technical documentation describes internal structures and processes of the simulation system. Section 1.6 provides information regarding the required structure of input/output tables.
Conversion of natural vegetation into cattle pastures and croplands results in altered emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Their atmospheric concentration increase is attributed the main driver of climate change. Despite of successful private initiatives, e.g. the Soy Moratorium and the Cattle Agreement, Brazil was ranked the worldwide second largest emitter of GHG from land use change and forestry, and the third largest emitter from agriculture in 2012. N2O is the major GHG, in particular for the agricultural sector, as its natural emissions are strongly enhanced by human activities (e.g. fertilization and land use changes). Given denitrification the main process for N2O production and its sensitivity to external changes (e.g. precipitation events) makes Brazil particularly predestined for high soil-derived N2O fluxes.
In this study, we followed a bottom-up approach based on a country-wide literature research, own measurement campaigns, and modeling on the plot and regional scale, in order to quantify the scenario-specific development of GHG emissions from soils in the two Federal States Mato Grosso and Pará. In general, N2O fluxes from Brazilian soils were found to be low and not particularly dynamic. In addition to that, expected reactions to precipitation events stayed away. These findings emphasized elaborate model simulations in daily time steps too sophisticated for regional applications. Hence, an extrapolation approach was used to first estimate the influence of four different land use scenarios (alternative futures) on GHG emissions and then set up mitigation strategies for Southern Amazonia. The results suggested intensification of agricultural areas (mainly cattle pastures) and, consequently, avoided deforestation essential for GHG mitigation.
The outcomes of this study provide a very good basis for (a) further research on the understanding of underlying processes causing low N2O fluxes from Brazilian soils and (b) political attempts to avoid new deforestation and keep GHG emissions low.