The technological progress is highly responsible for how people live their everyday life. Technical innovations provide new opportunities to re-design all areas of life and because of that the society has to adjust to these changes permanently. These days, due to the fact that there is a changeover from analog into digital processes, this circumstance is highly relevant. However, it is not always clear whether a technological innovation just entails chances or involves risks, too. The research field of technology assessment pursues the goal to examine the influence of technological innovations on the society. For this purpose, unpredictable consequences of a technology need to be anticipated in advance to provide the opportunity of earlier reactions. The core of this thesis a discussion about a project based approach of technology assessment. Additionally, it is being investigated whether and how systems theory approaches can be used to improve predictions in the research area of technology assessment. Therefore, the question of how reliable forecasts are in this kind of context will be answered. Moreover, there is an investigation if an added-value can be created through performing system thinking. As a methodical approach a literature review has been performed. Furthermore, experts were questioned in an interview and by e-mail to gain an insight in the practical work of technology assessment. Based on the elaborated project structure, for each part of the project was examined if significant results can be maintained through the sophisticated use of principles of the systems theory. The analysis of this paper has shown that the results of a technology assessment may have more reliable forecast value in comparison to an investigation without proper consideration of system thinking. Especially, the understanding of a system during the phase of conception of a project can be crucial for the positive outcome for the results of technology assessment. This master thesis represents the theoretical point of view regarding topics technology assessment and systems theory. An application test for the validation of the results in the practical work of technology assessment is recommended.

Railway safety is a topic which gains the public attention only if major railway accidents happen. This is because railway is considered as a safe mode of travel by the public. However, to ensure the safety of the railway system railway companies as well as universities conduct a broad spectrum of research. An overview of this research has not yet been provided in the scholarly literature. Therefore, this thesis follows two objectives. First an overview and ranking of railway safety research universities should be provided. Second, based on these universities, it should be identified which are the most relevant and influential research topics. The ranking is based on the research method “literature review” which forms the methodical basis for this thesis. To evaluate the universities based on a measurable and objective criterion, the number of citations of the researchers from each university is gathered. As a result, the University of Leuven for the civil engineering, Milan Politechnico for mechanical enginering and the University of Loughborough for electrical engineering are identified as the leading university in their field of railway safety research. The top universities for each discipline are distributed all over Europe, North America and Asia. However, a clear focus on the US and British universities is observed. For identification of the most relevant and influential topics the keywords from the publications which are considered in the ranking procedure are analyzed. Focus areas among these keywords are revealed by calculating the count of each keyword. High-speed trains as well as maintenance are recognized as the highly relevant topics in both civil and mechanical engineering. Furthermore, the topic of railway dynamics for mechanical engineering and noise and vibration for civil engineering are identified as the leading topics in the respective discipline. Achieving both research goals required exploratory approaches. Therefore, this thesis leaves open space for future research to deepen the individual topics which are approached in each section. A validation of the results through experts interviews as well as a deepening of the analysis through increasing the number of analyzed universities as well as applying statistical methods is recommended.

This thesis aims to find models to calculate damages to persons in the context of railway accidents. These models were tested for their applicability for a railway accident database. The reviewed models for injured casualties were identified by a research of literature. Their applicability for the accident database was tested with the aid of average values and sample values. The analysis of fatalities was executed via the combination of collected values of two literature researches. These values were compared to the values of the database. It was stated that there is a calculation for seriously injured, which may serve more exact values than the calculation of the database, especially when there is more detailed data about the casualties. The calculation of slightly injured couldn't be realized by just beholding the pure damages to persons, because it's only a small part of the costs the responsible company has to pay. For the calculation of fatalities appeared problems with the methodology of the most studies.

This thesis deals with the approach, the structure and the variety of methods in the field of technology forecasting. Furthermore insights into the environment of Railways Diagnostics and Monitoring Technologies (RDMT), their technology management and industryspecific requirements for technology forecasting (especially in the area SMEs) are given. Combining those a recommendation for practical use of research results in companies of this size and industry is developed. In order to initiate the previously mentioned research elements a literature research was operated in the field of innovation management and the railway environment. In addition, an interview with an expert of a medium-sized technology manufacturer of RDMT industry was performed. The most important finding was that a single method cannot fulfill the requirements on its own, thus a combination of methods and organizational forms is necessary to achieve an effective technology forecasting.