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Institute
The estimation of the potential risk of pesticide entries into streams - and therefore the potential risk for the ecosystems - is an important requirement for the planning of risk mitigation strategies. Especially on the landscape level the required event triggered sampling methods are conjuncted with considerable efforts with regard to input data, time and personnel. To circumvent these problems simulation models form a reasonable alternative. The aims of this work were (A) the development of a simulation tool for the estimation of pesticide entries into surface waters on the landscape level, and (B) the application of the simulator for an exposure- and risk-assessment as well as the assessment of negative effects of pesticides on aquatic communities. Section 1 - Exposure-, Risk- and Effects In sections 1.1 and 1.2 the simulation model was applied to a multitude of small and medium sized streams in an agricultural impacted study area around the city of Braunschweig, Germany. Section 1.3 gives an overview of the simulators field of application and the general system structure. Section 1.1 - Scenario based simulation of runoff-related pesticide entries into small streams on a landscape level (English publication, p. 27): In this paper we present a simulation tool for the simulation of pesticide entry from arable land into adjacent streams. We used the ratio of exposure to toxicity (REXTOX) model proposed by the OECD which was extended to calculate pesticide concentrations in adjacent streams. We simulated the pesticide entry on the landscape level at 737 sites in small streams situated in the central lowland of Germany. The most significant model parameters were the width of the no-application-zone and the degree of plant-interception. The simulation was carried out using eight different environmental scenarios, covering variation of the width of the no-application-zone, climate and seasonal scenarios. The highest in-stream concentrations were predicted at a scenario using no (0 m) buffer zone in conjunction with increased precipitation. According to the predicted concentrations, the risk for the aquatic communities was estimated based on standard toxicity tests and the application of a safety factor. Section 1.2 - Linking land use variables and invertebrate taxon richness in small and medium-sized agricultural streams on a landscape level (English publication, p. 50): In this study the average numbers of invertebrate species across an arable landscape in central Germany (surveys from 15 years in 90 streams at 202 sites) were assessed for their correlation with environmental factors such as stream width, land use (arable land, forest, pasture, settlement), soil type and agricultural derived stressors. The stress originating from arable land was estimated by the factor "risk of runoff", which was derived from a runoff-model (rainfall induced surface runoff). Multivariate analysis explained 39.9% of the variance in species number, revealing stream width as the most important factor (25.3%) followed by risk of runoff (9.7%). Section 1.3 - Informationssystem zur ökotoxikologischen Bewertung der Gewässergüte in Bezug auf Pflanzenschutzmitteleinträge aus der Landwirtschaft - Systemaufbau und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten (German publication, p. 61): Section 1.3 contains a short overview of the simulation tool, the field of application and some examples of use, covering the effects of the width of the buffer zone as well as the creation of risk maps on the landscape level. Section 2 - The simulation tool An important aspect for the employment of a simulation model in the context of risk assessment is the applicability in practice: the accessibility of the needed input data, the conversion of the mathematical model into a software application that can be run on any current personnel computer and also an appropriate end-user documentation of the system. Section 1.4 - Informationssystem zur ökotoxikologischen Bewertung der Gewässergüte in Bezug auf Pflanzenschutzmitteleinträge aus der Landwirtschaft - Simulationsmodell und Systemaufbau (German report, p. 67): In this section a general overview of the simulation model as well as the schematic system structure given. Section 1.5 - Benutzerhandbuch (German report, p. 71): The user manual contains details concerning the installation of the system, generation of the required input data and the general use of the system. Moreover it presents some application examples (what-if analyses). Section 1.6 - Technical documentation (German report, p. 104): The technical documentation describes internal structures and processes of the simulation system. Section 1.6 provides information regarding the required structure of input/output tables.
Statistical eco(-toxico)logy
(2017)
Freshwaters are of immense importance for human well-being.
Nevertheless, they are currently facing unprecedented levels of threat from habitat loss and degradation, overexploitation, invasive species and
pollution.
To prevent risks to aquatic ecosystems, chemical substances, like agricultural pesticides, have to pass environmental risk assessment (ERA) before entering the market.
Concurrently, large-scale environmental monitoring is used for surveillance of biological and chemical conditions in freshwaters.
This thesis examines statistical methods currently used in ERA.
Moreover, it presents a national-scale compilation of chemical monitoring data, an analysis of drivers and dynamics of chemical pollution in streams and, provides a large-scale risk assessment by combination with results from ERA.
Additionally, software tools have been developed to integrate different datasets used in ERA.
The thesis starts with a brief introduction to ERA and environmental monitoring and gives an overview of the objectives of the thesis.
Chapter 2 addresses experimental setups and their statistical analyses using simulations.
The results show that current designs exhibit unacceptably low statistical power, that statistical methods chosen to fit the type of data provide higher power and that statistical practices in ERA need to be revised.
In chapter 3 we compiled all available pesticide monitoring data from Germany.
Hereby, we focused on small streams, similar to those considered in ERA and used threshold concentrations derived during ERA for a large-scale assessment of threats to freshwaters from pesticides.
This compilation resulted in the most comprehensive dataset on pesticide exposure currently available for Germany.
Using state-of-the-art statistical techniques, that explicitly take the limits of quantification into account, we demonstrate that 25% of small streams are at threat from pesticides.
In particular neonicotinoid pesticides are responsible for these threats.
These are associated with agricultural intensity and can be detected even at low levels of agricultural use.
Moreover, our results indicated that current monitoring underestimates pesticide risks, because of a sampling decoupled from precipitation events.
Additionally, we provide a first large-scale study of annual pesticide exposure dynamics.
Chapters 4 and 5 describe software solutions to simplify and accelerate the integration of data from ERA, environmental monitoring and ecotoxicology that is indispensable for the development of landscape-level risk assessment.
Overall, this thesis contributes to the emerging discipline of statistical ecotoxicology and shows that pesticides pose a large-scale threat to small streams.
Environmental monitoring can provide a post-authorisation feedback to ERA.
However, to protect freshwater ecosystems ERA and environmental monitoring need to be further refined and we provide software solutions to utilise existing data for this purpose.