## 31 Mathematik

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- measure (1)
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In the last years, the public interest in epidemiology and mathematical modeling of disease spread has increased - mainly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has emphasized the urgent need for accurate and timely modelling of disease transmission. However, even prior to that, mathematical modelling has been used for describing the dynamics and spread of infectious diseases, which is vital for developing effective interventions and controls, e.g., for vaccination campaigns and social restrictions like lockdowns. The forecasts and evaluations provided by these models influence political actions and shape the measures implemented to contain the virus.
This research contributes to the understanding and control of disease spread, specifically for Dengue fever and COVID-19, making use of mathematical models and various data analysis techniques. The mathematical foundations of epidemiological modelling, as well as several concepts for spatio-temporal diffusion like ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, are presented, as well as an originally human-vector model for Dengue fever, and the standard (SEIR)-model (with the potential inclusion of an equation for deceased persons), which are suited for the description of COVID-19. Additionally, multi-compartment models, fractional diffusion models, partial differential equations (PDE) models, and integro-differential models are used to describe spatial propagation of the diseases.
We will make use of different optimization techniques to adapt the models to medical data and estimate the relevant parameters or finding optimal control techniques for containing diseases using both Metropolis and Lagrangian methods. Reasonable estimates for the unknown parameters are found, especially in initial stages of pandemics, when little to no information is available and the majority of the population has not got in contact with the disease. The longer a disease is present, the more complex the modelling gets and more things (vaccination, different types, etc.) appear and reduce the estimation and prediction quality of the mathematical models.
While it is possible to create highly complex models with numerous equations and parameters, such an approach presents several challenges, including difficulties in comparing and evaluating data, increased risk of overfitting, and reduced generalizability. Therefore, we will also consider criteria for model selection based on fit and complexity as well as the sensitivity of the model with respect to specific parameters. This also gives valuable information on which political interventions should be more emphasized for possible variations of parameter values.
Furthermore, the presented models, particularly the optimization using the Metropolis algorithm for parameter estimation, are compared with other established methods. The quality of model calculation, as well as computational effort and applicability, play a role in this comparison. Additionally, the spatial integro-differential model is compared with an established agent-based model. Since the macroscopic results align very well, the computationally faster integro-differential model can now be used as a proxy for the slower and non-traditionally optimizable agent-based model, e.g., in order to find an apt control strategy.

We consider variational discretization of three different optimal control problems.
The first being a parabolic optimal control problem governed by space-time measure controls. This problem has a nice sparsity structure, which motivates our aim to achieve maximal sparsity on the discrete level. Due to the measures on the right hand side of the partial differential equation, we consider a very weak solution theory for the state equation and need an embedding into the continuous functions for the pairings to make sense. Furthermore, we employ Fenchel duality to formulate the predual problem and give results on solution theory of both the predual and the primal problem. Later on, the duality is also helpful for the derivation of algorithms, since the predual problem can be differentiated twice so that we can apply a semismooth Newton method. We then retrieve the optimal control by duality relations.
For the state discretization we use a Petrov-Galerkin method employing piecewise constant states and piecewise linear and continuous test functions in time. For the space discretization we choose piecewise linear and continuous functions. As a result the controls are composed of Dirac measures in space-time, centered at points on the discrete space-time grid. We prove that the optimal discrete states and controls converge strongly in L^q and weakly-* in Μ, respectively, to their smooth counterparts, where q ϵ (1,min{2,1+2/d}] is the spatial dimension. The variational discrete version of the state equation with the above choice of spaces yields a Crank-Nicolson time stepping scheme with half a Rannacher smoothing step.
Furthermore, we compare our approach to a full discretization of the corresponding control problem, precisely a discontinuous Galerkin method for the state discretization, where the discrete controls are piecewise constant in time and Dirac measures in space. Numerical experiments highlight the sparsity features of our discrete approach and verify the convergence results.
The second problem we analyze is a parabolic optimal control problem governed by bounded initial measure controls. Here, the cost functional consists of a tracking term corresponding to the observation of the state at final time. Instead of a regularization term for the control in the cost functional, we consider a bound on the measure norm of the initial control. As in the first problem we observe a sparsity structure, but here the control resides only in space at initial time, so we focus on the space discretization to achieve maximal sparsity of the control. Again, due to the initial measure in the partial differential equation, we rely on a very weak solution theory of the state equation.
We employ a dG(0) approximation of the state equation, i.e. we choose piecewise linear and continuous functions in space, which are piecewise constant in time for our ansatz and test space. Then, the variational discretization of the problem together with the optimality conditions induce maximal discrete sparsity of the initial control, i.e. Dirac measures in space. We present numerical experiments to illustrate our approach and investigate the sparsity structure
As third problem we choose an elliptic optimal control governed by functions of bounded variation (BV) in one space dimension. The cost functional consists of a tracking term for the state and a BV-seminorm in terms of the derivative of the control. We derive a sparsity structure for the derivative of the BV control. Additionally, we utilize the mixed formulation for the state equation.
A variational discretization approach with piecewise constant discretization of the state and piecewise linear and continuous discretization of the adjoint state yields that the derivative of the control is a sum of Dirac measures. Consequently the control is a piecewise constant function. Under a structural assumption we even get that the number of jumps of the control is finite. We prove error estimates for the variational discretization approach in combination with the mixed formulation of the state equation and confirm our findings in numerical experiments that display the convergence rate.
In summary we confirm the use of variational discretization for optimal control problems with measures that inherit a sparsity. We are able to preserve the sparsity on the discrete level without discretizing the control variable.